A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
